The Bottom Line

The warmup is on. After a couple of unseasonably chilly days, the temperature pendulum will swing to the warm side now. Each of the next three days will feature a mix of sun and clouds, almost completely dry weather, and temperatures well above seasonal normals.

Halloween (Thursday) will be the warmest day of the week, as thermometers flirt with 80 degrees. It will likely be New Jersey's warmest Halloween in many decades. (Since 1950, according to my rough estimation.)

Friday is a cold front day. And there is actually a rain icon in the 5 Day Forecast. Those showers will not amount to much, but at least it will break the streak of rain-free days. Our weather turns somewhat blustery and cooler again for the first weekend of November.

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Tuesday

Overall, a fine October day. Just a couple of hiccups worth mentioning.

First, temperatures are chilly to start the day. (Admittedly, colder than I suspected.) The usual "coldest corners" of the state — NW NJ and the Pine Barrens — have dropped to about the freezing mark. Most of New Jersey is hovering around 40 degrees. And the coast is much warmer, aided by an on-shore breeze, with temps near 60 in spots.

So, bottom line: Temperatures are between 30 and 60. Grab a jacket to start the day.

Under partly sunny skies, high temperatures will end up in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday afternoon. 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday. And about the same magnitude above normal for this time of year.

Not only will temperature be on the rise, but humidity levels will bump up a bit too. Not enough for the air to feel sticky or steamy — but it will help with our dry skin, dry lips, dry eye situation.

Our second potential wrinkle is an isolated light shower — a sprinkle — that could clip the northern and eastern edges of New Jersey. Most likely timing for a few raindrops would be late afternoon through early evening. Again, very light and limited — it will not amount to much, and should not get in the way of your outdoor plans.

We'll follow up the pleasant day with a comfortably cool night. Expect some lingering clouds through Tuesday evening, with overnight low temperatures falling to around 50.

Wednesday

The warmup really kicks into high gear on Wednesday, as temperatures soar to about 15 degrees above seasonal normals. You can safely ditch the jacket and sweater for a couple days.

Look for highs in the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon. Again, we will see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. With light winds and completely dry weather conditions.

Thursday

Thursday is Halloween. And it still looks like our warmest trick-or-treating excursion in about 75 years.

Effective weather conditions will be very similar to Wednesday — mixed sunshine with passing clouds, and warm temperatures. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

The best news of all: Halloween will stay completely dry.

Even after sunset Thursday evening, temperatures will not nosedive that quickly. (Thanks to that hint of humidity in the air.) That should keep thermometers on the mild side through the evening and overnight hours. (Forecast low around 60.)

Friday

Friday is a cold front day. That means changes are ahead, but we should squeeze out one more day on the warm side.

The first morning of November will start with a band of rain traveling across New Jersey. Yes, actual measurable raindrops — a definite rarity this fall.

Unfortunately model guidance has backed off rainfall totals — amounting to about a tenth of an inch. That's barely anything. Certainly not a droughtbuster. But at least it should break our consecutive streak of rain-free days — so that's something.

Any given spot in New Jersey will likely see showers for an hour or two Friday morning, before drying out and eventually clearing to sunshine.

The frontal boundary itself will push through New Jersey around midday. Before that happens, high temperatures should still reach the lower 70s.

Behind the front, a brisk northwesterly wind may gust over 20 mph as cooler air "whooshes" back into NJ. Thermometers will likely fall downward through the afternoon, but I would not characterize this cooldown as a "temperature tumble" or "arctic blast".

The Weekend & Beyond

By Saturday morning, we will be firmly back on the cool side of the world. A morning frost/freeze is possible across the interior of New Jersey. And then high temperatures will only reach the 50s. At least it will be a sunny, dry, calm November day.

Temperatures will slowly moderate through Sunday and early next week, likely back into the 60s.

There are still no substantial storm systems on the horizon, through at least late next week. That means weather should not interfere with Election Day here in New Jersey.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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