From clear to wet to freezing cold: NJ holiday weekend forecast

The Bottom Line

Repeat after me: "I am thankful for the rain. We really need it."

Unfortunately, your Thanksgiving Day is still looking quite soggy. But that is the only day through the holiday weekend that will pose any kind of travel headaches here in New Jersey. Even so, we still are not talking about flooding, severe weather, or winter weather — just rain.

Behind the rain comes unseasonable cold, which will carry into the first week of December.

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Wednesday

Happy Thanksgiving Eve! There will be no weather-related travel issues at all, as we stay completely dry all day.

While Wednesday morning will start with bright sunshine, it is pretty cold. Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s — hopefully you have some good way of keeping warm.

Highs will reach about 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Not bad — close to normal for this time of year. Sun will give way to clouds through the afternoon.

Wednesday evening's ride home also looks quiet. Any impending chance of rain should hold off until after Midnight. Clouds will continue to thicken up overnight. Low temperatures will descend to the lower 40s or so — notably above the freezing mark.

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day)

A broad storm system will be right on top of New Jersey on Thursday, leading to an extended period of wet weather throughout the day.

I think prime time for rain on Thursday will be about 4 a.m. to 4 p.m. The steadiest, heaviest rain will likely fall in the mid to late morning hours. Total rainfall around New Jersey will be a half-inch to an inch. That is wet.

Keep in mind, our recent stretch of very dry weather and our position in mid-autumn means those roads could be extra-slippery during and after rainfall. Visibility may be reduced in areas of moderate to heavy rain.

The risk of wintry weather is very low. I could see some snow or wintry mix around the hilltops of Sussex County at onset. But I do not expect any substantial accumulations or icy travel impacts.

By mid-afternoon Thursday, we will see a drying trend kick, with final showers expected in the early evening hours.

Meanwhile, it will be cloudy. And breezy, especially in the afternoon. That wind speed forecast is especially important for the 22 balloons in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade — but I believe gusts will stay below the 34 mph threshold that would ground them.

Temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 30s in northwestern New Jersey, to the mid 50s along the southern coast. I suspect most of the state will hover around 50 degrees. Making it a cold, clamming, uncomfortable rain. Blah.

Skies should clear quickly behind the rain Thursday night. Even though temperatures will dip to the lower 30s, I am not worried about a "flash freeze" — it's not going to get cold enough for long enough for puddles to ice up.

Friday (Black Friday)

I have removed Friday's early morning shower chance. It looks like a dry and mostly sunny day. So once again, we fall into a day of no travel issues. But you will notice a renewed chill in the air.

HIgh temperatures on Friday will be limited to the mid 40s. (Keep in mind, normal highs for late November are still in the lower 50s.) Plus, with a stiff breeze out of the northwest, a biting wind chill will fully remind you just how cold it is.

Saturday

Saturday could be the coldest day of the season so far. We're talking "dead of winter" kind of cold.

Widespread 20s Saturday morning will only warm to 40 degrees at best Saturday afternoon. Any little breeze will keep the wind chill at or below freezing. Brrr!

Saturday should feature plenty of sunshine. I could see a flurry developing at some point. Otherwise, it will be a dry day with no travel issues.

Sunday

The holiday weekend ends and December begins with another quiet, cold day. Expect mostly to partly sunny skies, and highs only in the upper 30s.

The Extended Forecast

Cold weather will continue into the first week of December. Remember cold air is dry air, so there will be little to no chance of precipitation. (Other than an errant shower or flurry.)

Having said that, cold air is the first and most important ingredient for snow. And some models are hinting at a storm system signal toward the end of next week. It means jack squat right now. But obviously worth watching as we barrel through the holiday season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.