Last day of winter will be marvelously mild … for most of NJ

The Bottom Line

We made it! Wednesday is the last full day of winter, with the Vernal Equinox set to arrive at 5:01 a.m. EDT on Thursday. And most of New Jersey will squeeze out one or two more mild days, before we board the weather roller coaster again.

The big change for Tuesday is a wind direction flip, from northwesterly to southeasterly. A breeze blowing from the southeast — an ocean breeze — has two effects on New Jersey:

1.) Enriching atmospheric moisture (humidity), which will play into our upcoming rain chance on Thursday.

2.) Blowing chilly marine air toward the Jersey Shore, keeping temperatures about 15 degrees cooler than inland areas.

So there is your one exception to the "marvelously mild" weather in Wednesday's forecast. While most of New Jersey will soar into the mid 60s, coastal communities will be stuck around 50 degrees. Not exactly warm.

Our next chance of rain arrives late Thursday, followed by a big blustery cooldown for Friday. The upcoming first weekend of Spring features a mixed bag of weather for New Jersey, although it will be mainly dry.

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Wednesday

Another beautiful, springlike day.

Wednesday morning picks up where Tuesday finished. Bright sunshine will take the bite off the chilly 30s by mid-morning. And push temperatures into the mid 60s for most of New Jersey by the afternoon.

Again, coastal communities — basically east of the Garden State Parkway — will end up significantly cooler, closer to 50 degrees.

Expect golden sunshine and blue skies for the first half of the day. Then some clouds will creep in through the afternoon. We will stay completely dry. And that ocean breeze will be on the light side.

Clouds will thicken up Wednesday evening. With higher humidity in play, fog is possible overnight, especially along the coast. Maybe even patchy drizzle. Overnight low temperatures will dip to the lower 40s or something.

Thursday

Thursday will be an OK weather day. But eventually, everyone in New Jersey will get wet.

I think clouds will win the sky on Thursday, although there will be some pops of sun. (Especially the farther west in NJ you are.)

It will turn breezy, again blowing from the southeast. While most high temps will hit the lower 60s, the Jersey Shore will be on the cool side.

While a sprinkle is possible early Thursday, the highest rain chances will hold off until after about 5 p.m. An approaching cold front will spark a line of showers and thunderstorms, which will generally cross from west to east across the state Thursday evening. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible, along with rumbles of thunder. No organized severe weather is expected. Total rainfall will probably top a half-inch — healthy wet weather.

For the most part, rain should exit and NJ should dry out by around 4 or 5 a.m. Friday morning.

The GFS forecast model still has precipitation lingering through late morning Thursday, with a transition to solid snowfall in North Jersey. I still don't buy it. Wet snowflakes on the backside, maybe. But accumulating snow seems highly unlikely.

Friday

As sunshine returns Friday morning, we face a transition to colder temperatures.

Friday will be a windy day, with potential 40+ mph gusts out of the northwest. That is advisory criteria, with an elevated risk for minor damage, driving difficulties, and power outages.

High temperatures on Friday will only reach the upper 40s or so. Maybe some 50s in South Jersey. But all those numbers are below normal for this time of year. It is going to be a chilly, blustery end to the workweek.

Saturday

Saturday will be the warmer day of the weekend. Although cloudier and potentially wetter.

Expect partial sunshine, breezy conditions, and above-normal temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. The only real hiccup Saturday will be some spotty midday showers — not everyone in New Jersey will get wet, but raindrops could briefly interrupt outdoor plans.

Sunday

Sunday will be the colder but sunnier day of the weekend.

The wind will gradually calm Sunday. But high temperatures will only reach the upper 40s or so. More typical of early March than late March.

The Extended Forecast

To describe next week, I would call it "seasonable" and "active". Daily high temperatures will probably end up in the 50s more often than not. And little storm systems will line up to deliver brief batches of rain to New Jersey. One Monday morning. Another one Wednesday morning.

Wet weather is good — I would love for our drought status to dramatically improve before the hot summer months. We will just have to watch for the possibility of 1.) severe thunderstorms, and/or 2.) any hint of wintry weather.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.