Latest update on NJ’s much-needed rain, windy cooldown, and snow

The Bottom Line

It sure has been a long time since we have had some actual "weather" to talk about!

New Jersey's drought and wildfire woes are about to ease slightly, as a powerful cold front drives in much-needed rain starting late Wednesday night. Along with that rain will come a gusty wind and colder air. And that storm system will linger in the neighborhood through Thursday night and Friday, presenting the possibility for some wintry weather in North Jersey.

In fact, this forecast is trending wetter and colder because of that "linger" factor. While I still think most of New Jersey is looking at a half-inch to an inch of rainfall, those totals could drive much higher to the north. And some forecast models are pumping out some accumulating snow along the northern edge of the state. The big question, of course: Will it be cold enough for snow to stick?

The real bottom line: Both Thursday and Friday look like inclement, chilly, raw weather days. This storm system will not bust our drought — but every raindrop helps at this point.

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Tuesday

All good, during the day.

Tuesday is starting off seasonably chilly, with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Grab a jacket.

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be on the mild side once again, reaching about 60 degrees. We will stay dry during the daytime hours, with increasing clouds. Winds will be lighter than Monday — reducing the "bluster" and limiting the rapid spread of wildfires.

As a warm front lifts into New Jersey Tuesday evening, spotty showers are a good possibility. Any raindrops will be light and brief, with only a few hundredths of an inch of total rainfall, if that. Just some damp weather.

Otherwise, mostly cloudy and upper 40s overnight.

Wednesday

Again, no problems during the day on Wednesday.

Under a mix of clouds and sun, high temperatures will again come reasonably close to 60 degrees. (Keep in mind, normal highs right now are in the mid 50s, so we will be above that benchmark.)

Initial showers from our impending storm system could creep in as early as 5 p.m. Wednesday. More likely, steady rain holds off until much later, after 10 p.m.

Thursday

An active, inclement weather day. It's the first time in a while I've popped a "yellow alert" icon into the 5 Day Forecast.

Early Thursday morning, a band of steady rain will soak all of New Jersey. Any given location will see a few hours of wet weather, likely wrapping up by 8 a.m. at the latest. Pockets of heavy rain and rumbles of thunder are even possible. (Again, it has been a long time since we've had to talk about this stuff!)

Total rainfall from this initial batch of rain will realistically range from a quarter-inch in South Jersey (the most parched part of the state) to upwards of an inch to the north and west. Again, all liquid rainfall and all good healthy stuff.

The wind will also kick up at this time, potentially gusting over 40 mph. That wind will eventually carry in colder air, causing temperatures to tumble.

The big question: What will this storm system do after Thursday morning? It looks like the main area of low pressure will stall over New England — potentially close enough to keep clouds and showers over New Jersey, especially to the north and east (NYC metro area). Even though South Jersey might catch some peeks of sun Thursday afternoon, it will not be a very nice weather day overall.

With precipitation in the forecast amid falling temperatures, we do have to bring the idea of wintry mix or even straight snow into the conversation by Thursday night. Model guidance is pumping out a solid foot of snowfall over the Catskills of New York. That seems ludicrous for NJ — although a colder, wetter forecast does make me wonder if we'll see light snow accumulations and slippery spots north of Interstate 80.

I am not ready to put snow accumulation numbers on this forecast. (And for the record, I don't want to hear about the ground being "too warm and too wet" for snow to stick.)

Friday

More of the same for Friday. Although there's still lots of uncertainty baked into this forecast.

On the backside of that storm system, wraparound moisture may once again spark some showers during the day Friday. Once again, mainly north and east. Once again, it could be rain or it could be snow.

Some models even push wintry mix showers into central New Jersey, as far south as about I-195. I don't think it will be cold enough for such a snowy scenario, but the possibility is worth watching.

Otherwise, Friday will still be cloudy, windy, and cold. High temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 40s. Feeling quite December-ish.

Saturday & Beyond

By Saturday morning, skies will start to clear. Although our weather will remain cool and somewhat blustery. The weekend will feature a brighter sky. But highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 40s or so.

Sunday will be better, mostly sunny and breezy, with highs in the lower 50s.

The warmup should carry into Monday and Tuesday too, with 60s possibly making a brief comeback. We will likely see another storm system and another batch of rain around the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, which could hinder Thanksgiving travel a little bit.

Right now, the Thanksgiving holiday itself looks dry. (Although it is a full 9 days away.)

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.