Monday NJ weather: Heat wave day 5 of 7, how Beryl will affect us

The Bottom Line

Welcome back to the workweek! We are coming off a hot and sultry 4th of July weekend. Of course, that should come as no surprise, as July is New Jersey's average hottest and wettest month of the year.

The heat rolls on Monday, as a fresh Heat Advisory kicks in across almost the entire state. Temperatures in the 90s. Steamy dew points in the 70s. The heat index may approach 100 degrees.

I do not want to give the impression that this is a "historic" or "catastrophic" or "deadly" heat wave. Uncomfortable? Yes. Unseasonable? A little bit. Do you have to take care of yourself? Absolutely. But this kind of sweaty, sweltering weather happens in New Jersey every single summer.

Monday will be the fifth day of this heat wave. Tuesday will be number six. And Wednesday will probably be day seven. And that should be it, as clouds and raindrops cool temperatures to more seasonable, reasonable levels for the second half of the week.

An important piece of this forecast is the track of Hurricane Beryl, making landfall just south of Houston and Galveston, Texas as of Monday morning.

That deep plume of moisture and energy will swing a big "U-turn" over the Central U.S. and track over the Great Lakes around Thursday. Far northwest of New Jersey. But close enough to enhance those late-week rain chances. That's a good thing, with two-thirds of NJ currently classified as "Abnormally Dry".

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Monday

Hazy, hot, and humid. Sticky 70s in the morning. 90 to 95 degrees for most in the afternoon. You will find some relief at the Jersey Shore, with high temperatures probably in the 80s.

When you factor in the high humidity, the heat index will probably exceed 100 degrees across inland New Jersey Monday afternoon. You know the drill by now: Stay extra hydrated, dress for the weather, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Monday begins with some reports of patchy dense fog along the coast. Poor visibility conditions should improve by mid-morning, around 8 or 9 o'clock. The rest of the day will feature periods of sun and clouds. UV index will be in the "Very High" range, so make sure you lather up on the sunscreen if you're spending time outdoors.

The threat of thunderstorms is pretty low Monday. I suppose there is a slight chance of a popup just before sunset Monday evening. It would be very isolated and brief, if anything.

Monday night stays sticky, as low temperatures only dip into the 70s. Not cool or refreshing at all.

Tuesday

Another hot day, with high temps back in the lower 90s. Sweaty and summery again.

Compared to Monday, there will be some extra cloud cover overhead. And a slightly higher chance of a late-day popup thunderstorm.

Wednesday

While there won't be sweeping, wholesale changes in our atmosphere, Wednesday is forecast to be the finale of this heat wave.

Highs will reach about 90 degrees on Wednesday, under partly sunny skies. So still hot, still humid. It will be a breezier day, with southerly gusts kicking up to about 20 mph.

As Beryl moisture creeps in from the west, the chance goes way up for a few thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. They could be on the strong side, with downpours possible. But at least any storms that do develop will move in and out very fast. Best chance of storms will be during the typical late afternoon and evening time frame.

Thursday

Again on Thursday, we face a few scattered pockets of rain. Along with lots of clouds.

We will be stuck in the same steamy atmosphere. Humidity won't budge at all. It will not be a nice day, but at least it will not be as ferociously hot. Because of the changing weather, temperatures are expected to miss out on the 90s. Highs on Thursday should retreat to the seasonable mid 80s.

Friday & Beyond

Friday could be the wettest, stormiest day of the week. Although I want to stress again, there are no all-day, soaking wet washouts in the forecast here — it all comes in drips and spurts.

Expect periods of rain on Friday, with rumbles of thunder. It will be very warm and very humid once again, with highs in the mid 80s or so.

A shower may linger into Saturday morning, but the bulk of the weekend looks fine. By the numbers, Saturday looks like a typical midsummer day for New Jersey: Emerging sunshine, thick humidity, and highs in the mid 80s.

90s return for Sunday (and beyond). Hopefully dew points dial back to the 60s, making the air less steamy and more comfortable, but that is not a guarantee. Our next heat wave will probably last a week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.