Early numbers in NJ governor race could surprise both parties

If you're a supporter of Mikie Sherrill's bid to be the Garden State's next governor, you loved the headline number in the newest Rutgers-Eagleton poll released on July 2.

In a survey of over 600 adults, Sherrill, a Democrat, leads her Republican rival and 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 20 points, 51%-31%, with just 13% undecided.

When including those who are "leaning" toward supporting a candidate, Sherrill's lead increases by 1 point and a 56%-35% edge.

In addition to her head-to-head lead, Sherrill's statewide favorables sit at 50%-21%, while Ciattarelli's are underwater at 33%-42%.

The congresswoman is winning independent voters by a decent margin and polls better than her opponent on most issues, though she and Ciattarelli are essentially tied when it comes to who those polled think will address New Jersey's affordability woes.

"Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment... not as some crystal ball predicting the future," cautioned Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

"A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months."

Indeed, the last gubernatorial contest in New Jersey saw Gov. Phil Murphy appear to have a double-digit advantage over Ciattarelli, though he only ended up winning by three points. Murphy fired his pollster after polls showed a rosy state of the race for the governor.

Chris Russell, the chief strategist on Ciattarelli's campaign, dismissed the poll's findings and methodology. Speaking to New Jersey 101.5, Koning responded by saying the poll is not "for us to have the final picture of the race four months out," reiterating that there is no correct way to survey a "notoriously difficult" likely voter sample.

President Donald Trump's influence on the governor's race appears noteworthy: 52% of those surveyed say he is a "major factor" in their vote, and among independents that number is similar at 48%. Sherrill's supporters were more likely to assign the president a greater impact on the race than Ciattarelli's.

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