Seasonable warmth with intermittent bursts of stormy weather for NJ

The Bottom Line

With extreme heat and humidity staying far away from New Jersey, there is a lot to like about the forecast this week. However, things will remain somewhat unsettled over the next few days with intermittent bursts of showers and thunderstorms — a fairly typical summertime pattern. High temperatures on Tuesday will flirt with 90 degrees, extending our heat wave another day. There will be two opportunities for rain: a batch of showers clipping the state around midday, and then spot thunderstorms once again popping up late-day. Additional soaking thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night. The rest of the week will feature seasonable temperatures, in the middle 80s. Daily thunderstorm chances will likely continue, although things do trend drier just in time for the weekend.

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Weather Hazards

For the first time since the middle of last week, there are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect anywhere in New Jersey. That is neat.

There are no major alarm bells to ring for heat or storms, although Tuesday will be very warm and strong storms are possible. The biggest concern would be pockets of heavy rain, especially if thunderstorms develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The severe weather risk is low, but not zero. A stronger thunderstorm could produce a localized downpour, gusty wind, and dangerous lightning. This is not a widespread, organized severe weather setup. It is more of a typical summertime pattern: hit-or-miss rain chances, some dry hours, and plenty of uncertainty in the exact details.

Climatological Context

August 11 is the 223rd day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures are 85 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 66 to 69 degrees.

August is, on average, New Jersey’s second hottest and second wettest month of the year.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a touch cooler than Monday, a bit more humid, and a bit cloudier too.

Temperatures begin the morning around 70 degrees across New Jersey. Just like Monday. Not too bad, although there is definitely some mugginess in the air. Skies feature some clouds overhead, and the day will turn very warm and fairly humid.

A batch of showers and thunderstorms have been traveling across Pennsylvania early Tuesday morning, creeping closer and closer to New Jersey. They have been fizzling with time. However, it seems prudent to include a chance of showers in our forecast in the late morning through early afternoon time frame.

There will be a second opportunity for rain later Tuesday, as spot thunderstorms pop up again during the afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun throughout Tuesday. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with moderate to high humidity. This will extend the Jersey heat wave to a six (and likely final) day.

Tuesday night stays mostly cloudy. Some forecast models go especially bold on additional thunderstorms with heavy rain through the overnight hours.. Lows will dip to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Wednesday brings a return of seasonable temperatures, although it may be a little unsettled to start.

If those overnight storms do come to fruition, showers may be ongoing Wednesday morning. The sun should come out by midday, leading to a nice summer afternoon. High temperatures should reach the mid 80s, right on the normal for this time of year.

Thursday

Forecast models get a bit fuzzy later this week, in terms of the timing and spread of potential rain. There are no major storm systems in play, so it's just a matter of pinpointing if and when we could see some pockets of convention around the Garden State.

Thursday looks partly sunny with highs again in the mid 80s.

I will say that a shower will be possible at any time Thursday, although it does not look like a washout. Let's call it a “carry the umbrella just in case” day.

Friday & Beyond

So are we done with extreme heat for the season? Eh, not necessarily. In fact, we are just getting lucky in the forecast for later this week — you really do not have to travel far to the south and southwest to find widespread 90s and 100s.

Friday will end up in the seasonable mid 80s again. A quick batch of morning showers will give way to brighter skies and a stiff breeze. Again, it looks like a mainly pleasant summer day.

That should lead into a pleasant weekend, with temperatures right around or just below seasonal normals.

My current forecast shows lower 80s with partly sunny skies for Saturday. And then mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions, with highs in the mid 80s for Sunday. Next chance of rain looks to hold off until Sunday night.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.