Humidity and thunderstorms return to New Jersey this week

The Bottom Line

This weekend may go down as one of the nicest of the entire summer. And now, change is in the air. Humidity is already on the rise, leading to sweatier days and stickier nights. And our next storm system is in sight, which will lead to a four-day period of unsettled weather. Most of Monday will be OK, with partly sunny skies and highs in the 80s. Just watch for spotty showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Tuesday and Wednesday turn even stormier, and there is a real risk for heavy downpours and some gusty winds. Every forecast model paints over an inch of total rainfall for New Jersey, and some show a lot more, so flooding potential is going to be front-of-mind this week. By Thursday, we should see improvements as spotty showers exit and skies begin to brighten. If all goes well, our weather should clear out and dry out just in time for the first weekend of August.

The next 3 or 4 days will bring a chance for thunderstorms to New Jersey. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

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Weather Hazards

New Jersey has both a heavy rain concern and a severe thunderstorm concern back on the table this week.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of New Jersey under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and a higher Slight Risk for Tuesday. Stronger thunderstorm cells could spit out 60 mph or greater wind gusts, which could cause some issues. As always this time of year, it will be important to keep an eye and an ear on the sky.

The more crucial issue may be flooding. Every forecast model shows over an inch of rain between Monday and Thursday. Some models go event higher, raising flooding alarm bells for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Note: I am not necessarily buying the worst-case scenarios showing more than 6 inches of rain at the moment. But the heavy rain threat is one to keep in mind, given the potential for travel disruptions, ponding, flooding, and overall inclement conditions.

Climatological Context

July 27 is the 208th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 86 to 87 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 67 to 70 degrees.

July is, on average, New Jersey's hottest and wettest month of the year.

Monday

After a phenomenal weekend, humidity has returned to New Jersey's atmosphere. In fact, dew points are already on the rise. And you know what that means — stickier nights, sweatier days, and enhanced rain chances.

A couple of isolated thunderstorms popped up early Monday morning in far northern and far southern New Jersey. The southern storm pushed out some pretty heavy rain. That activity has since exited the coast, leaving a lull in wet and stormy weather for a while.

Most of Monday will be fine. It will be warm, noticeably more humid, and mostly to partly sunny. High temperatures will reach about 80 to 85 degrees. It will not feel quite as crisp or as perfect as the weekend, but it will still be a decent summer day.

Just keep an eye on the sky through Monday afternoon and Monday evening, as spotty showers and thunderstorms may redevelop. It will not rain everywhere, and it will not rain all day. But a few storms may pack downpours and gusty wind.

Monday night turns cloudier and stays sticky, with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

Tuesday brings the wettest and stormiest period of the week.

A few waves of thunderstorms are likely. While once again it will probably not rain all day long, those storms may contain heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Expect lots of clouds, a stiff breeze, and high temperatures around 75 to 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Wednesday is a bit of a question mark. At best, unsettled. At worst, soaking wet.

The setup involves Tuesday's area of low pressure tracking right over New Jersey developing further over the warm water of the Atlantic Ocean. The big question is whether that storm system gets "stuck" and continues to throw bands of heavy rain toward the Garden State. If so, flooding concerns will increase. At the very least, keep outdoor plans flexible and carry an umbrella.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday. Skies will feature a mix of clouds and sun, and high temperatures will end up around 80 degrees.

The good news is that the forecast should gradually trend in the right direction as Wednesday goes along. Skies should gradually brighten, with drier conditions by the evening.

Thursday & Beyond

Thursday is a transition day. Spotty showers may linger for a while, but they should eventually exit. Skies will stay mostly cloudy for much of the day, with some clearing possible late. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s.

If all goes well, Thursday will mark the end of this four-day unsettled stretch. From there, New Jersey should clear out and dry out just in time for the first weekend of August.

The long-range forecast keeps moderate humidity in place and scattered clouds, but kicks out rain chances. For now, I'm showing dry weather for Friday, Saturday, and daytime Sunday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.