NJ weather: Nice weather continues, next rain chance this weekend

The Bottom Line

I am loving this "windows open" weather! Labor Day came along, and our "weather switch" flipped. Temperatures are running upwards of 10 degrees cooler than early September normals. There is no heat or humidity in sight, for the next week at least. Even clouds and rain mainly stay away.

There is only one inclement day in the forecast: Saturday. It looks rainy, especially through the second half of the day. But at least forecast models have backed off the threat of heavy stuff, for now.

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Wednesday

To start, we are walking outside to one of the coolest mornings of the season so far. Much of inland New Jersey fell into the 40s overnight. (Closer to 60 degrees at the Jersey Shore.) Don't be ashamed to grab a jacket or sweatshirt, or flip your car's heat on for a few minutes.

Wednesday's afternoon high temperatures will be similar to Thursdays, in the mid 70s. Almost the entire state will enjoy brilliant sunshine all day. The exception is the southern edge of the state, where a few clouds will stream overhead.

Dry air, dry weather, and a light breeze will contribute to a very nice day overall.

Wednesday night will be clear and cool again. Most of NJ should bottom out in the 50s.

Thursday

Still dry and pleasant, with partly sunny skies. Although a prominent easterly, on-shore breeze will cause a few little hiccups along the coast.

First, Shore points will be the coolest spots in the state Thursday, likely limited to the lower 70s. I think the rest of New Jersey will be back in the mid 70s.

Second, the rip current risk jumps to High on Thursday. That is especially dangerous in the off-season, as lifeguards are now off-duty. Remember: The ocean is always stronger than you.

Friday

Friday will turn slightly more humid and slightly warmer (away from the coast). Aside from a coastal sprinkle, we should squeeze out one more dry day.

Most highs will hit about 75 to 80 degrees Friday afternoon. We will see a mix of sun and clouds — probably leaning heavier on the cloud cover late-day.

Saturday

Saturday is the one day of this stretch when outdoor activities will be challenging.

Latest model guidance shows we have a shot for a dry start to Saturday. So if you have morning sports or activities, you might just get lucky.

The latest it gets Saturday, the more likely it is we will have pockets of rain around New Jersey. We can back-off the idea of a widespread, multiple-inch soaking as discussed previously. But still, up to an inch of rain and thunderstorms are possible.

Could we use some rain, to avoid falling behind again? Yes. It is unfortunate that the one inclement day of the week falls on the weekend? Absolutely.

It is important to note — I do not think Saturday will be a total washout. I will continue to refine the timing and impacts forecast as the week goes on, so you can make/change plans accordingly.

Sunday & Beyond

A fresh cool, dry air will arrive on Sunday, bringing a return of dry weather and sunshine. High temperatures will only reach about 70 degrees — a taste of October-ish weather to close out this September/summer weekend.

Next week looks gorgeous again, potentially warming from the 70s on Monday into the 80s midweek. No storm systems or substantial chances of rain on the horizon. We will have to watch the tropics carefully, which are starting to fire up as the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.