NJ weather: Rising humidity and a few rain chances this week

The Bottom Line

Welcome to Monday! I truly hope you had a chance to enjoy this weekend's wonderful weather. Easily some of the best of the entire summer.

Now we look ahead to some changes. There are really three big weather headlines to track this week:
1.) A pair of storm systems, providing for a few spurts of rain.
2.) Rising humidity, back into the "steamy" zone.
3.) Our next heat wave, potentially on the horizon for the second half of the week.

Let's jump in to the details so you know to expect, as we prepare to turn the calendar page from July to August.

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Monday

As of this writing (7 a.m.), a coastal storm system is centered just under 200 miles east of the Jersey Shore. That area of low pressure is spitting clouds and a few showers/sprinkles toward New Jersey on this Monday morning. Most of the rain from the system is on the other side, impacting eastern Long Island and Connecticut.

So it will be somewhat dreary and damp to start the day. But I do expect more substantial breaks of sun into Monday afternoon.

Humidity levels stay "moderate" — for now. After starting out near 70 degrees, Monday's high temperatures will push into the mid 80s. A few degrees cooler than Sunday (due to clouds and raindrops). But that puts us right around seasonal normals for late July.

Overall, not an awful day.

There will be another opportunity for popup showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Let's say 4 p.m. to Midnight. These storms look isolated, but could pack a punch. (Again, if you see a storm.) We will have to watch out for gusty winds, small hail, and localized downpours.

The rest of Monday night will be partly cloudy, with lows dipping to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

First of all, dew points on Tuesday will likely push back into the 70s. That is my threshold for "high humidity". So get ready to sweat — your body just can not effectively cool itself via sweat and evaporation when the air is already so saturated.

Look for periods of sun and clouds throughout Tuesday. And a stiff breeze from the south, driving in all that juicy air. High temperatures will end up in the 80s once again.

As another storm system rolls in from the west, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will again increase late-day. This round of rain looks a bit more widespread than Monday's — although still, nothing crazy.

Wednesday

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will still be alive through the first half of Wednesday. But the forecast then trends drier into the afternoon, as partly sunny skies take over.

Wednesday could be the start of our next Jersey heat wave, as temperatures potentially flirt with 90 degrees. Humidity will still be high, so we will definitely be back in the muggy uggies.

Thursday

I am keeping a dry forecast for Thursday, in between systems. But it is going to be a hot and humid start to August.

With high temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points firmly in the 70s, the heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) may approach 100 degrees on Thursday. That is on the edge of "dangerous heat" — I assume we will have some advisories or warnings for heat later this week.

Friday & Beyond

Friday looks really steamy, with highs again mainly in the 90s and the heat index close to triple-digits. Clouds will fill in, and we will probably see a late round of thunderstorms.

For now, the weekend looks OK, although hot. Highs around 90. Best case scenario would be the humidity dials back a bit, making it very similar to this past Sunday.

I can not rule out some late-day rain chances coming into play this weekend. But it is too early to nail that down at this time.

The hottest solutions keep part of NJ at or above 90 degrees through the middle of next week. That is a potential 8-day heat wave.

But let us also keep in mind, we are getting closer to the heart of hurricane season. The Atlantic has been very quiet so far. (Owing largely to Saharan dust in the atmosphere.) With very warm ocean waters, explosive tropical development is possible over the next several weeks.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.