Rain for NJ Wednesday night, then bright and breezy as April turns to May

The Bottom Line

New Jersey's next storm system rolls in late Wednesday, with our next chance of rain. Most of Wednesday will be dry, although cloudy, with temperatures back in the 60s. Showers may creep in starting late afternoon, with a period of steady to heavy rain looking likely in the evening time. Final raindrops exit the state by around daybreak Thursday, and then we will dry out with clearing skies. There will be a cool breeze Thursday, but temperatures should still reach the 60s. Friday will be fair and mostly sunny, but on the cool side with highs in the 50s. A coastal storm may clip New Jersey with another chance of rain on Saturday — right now the majority of model guidance shows it to bea miss.

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Weather Hazards

There are no major alarm bells to ring in the forecast. Pockets of steady to heavy rain are possible Wednesday evening, but no widespread severe weather or flooding is expected.

Climatological Context

April 29 is the 119th day of 2019. Normal high temperatures for this date are holding around 68 degrees. Normal lows range from 46 to 49.

On average, April is the 6th coolest, 4th driest, and 5th snowiest month of the year.

Wednesday

Wednesday is starting out just fine. The morning will feature the same clouds and relatively comfortable temperatures we saw on Tuesday. The majority of the daytime hours will be dry across New Jersey.

You may or may not want a jacket first thing in the morning, with temperatures around 60 degrees. Highs will reach about 60 to 65, which is a hair below normal for this time of year. Any peeks of sun will quickly disappear behind mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

It will become breezy, iif not windy, at times too. The wind direction will be southeastern, blowing off the cool ocean, so Shore points will be cooler than inland areas by a few temperatures too.

Eventually, raindrops will come into play. Initial spotty showers may arrive in New Jersey as early as mid to late afternoon, starting around 3 p.m. So your outdoor after-school activities may suffer from damp conditions. But again, rain will be very sporadic and light at first.

The greater rain chance will come much later, in the evening and overnight hours. I will cast a wide window of 6 p.m. to 2 a.m. for prime time for this rain. A few hours worth of steady (if not heavy) rain is likely, possibly with some rumbles of thunder. Rainfall totals will probably end up around a half-inch for many.

Showers should taper off by about daybreak on Thursday. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s or so.

Thursday

So Thursday will be another dry weather day. As skies clear, we will pick up a noticeable cool breeze. The air may even feel a bit fall-like with that breeze blowing things around.

But Thursday's high temperatures will be reasonably close to Wednesday's, in the lower 60s. Still below normal, but not too shabby.

Friday

Friday will be on the cool side, with highs in the upper 50s. But with plenty of sunshine. You can't complain too much about sunshine here in the springtime months. (Unless, of course, you are suffering from allergies and/or the drought.)

Saturday & Beyond

We have been watching a coastal storm system, expected to make a close flyby of New Jersey on Saturday. Most model forecasts now show this system to be a "miss" for us, throwing some clouds toward NJ but keeping showers away.

This is not a "slum dunk" forecast, but I think the most likely outcome is a dry, mostly cloudy, cool Saturday. It is worth watching, and I have included a chance for rain showers in the forecast, especially to the south and coast. We will see how things continue to play out.

Between Saturday's potential for rain, cloud cover, and a prominent on-shore wind, temperatures will stay on the cool side yet again. I do not see a world where high temps go much between 60 degrees.

The sun comes out on Sunday, with a stiff breeze and highs again near 60. A warmup will carry into early next week, potentially touching 70+ degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday. Those two days will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms too.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.