NJ’s biggest storm in three months: Rain, wind, and some snow

The Bottom Line

The last time New Jersey experienced significant rain was way back in August. More than three months ago. Since then, fall has brought nothing but spiraling drought woes and almost constant wildfire threats. I am happy to say we are still on track for a 48-hour burst of inclement weather. It will not completely solve our dry weather problems, but will definitely help. (Especially since the forecast continues to trend wetter.)

I will break down the storm timeline in a moment. But first, here is a quick rundown of the storm impacts, by the numbers:

—Rain... Rainfall totals should exceed a half-inch in South Jersey, and an inch and a half in North Jersey. The ground is so thirsty and rain intensity light enough that flooding is not a huge concern.

—Wind... Gusts will increase to 30+ mph Wednesday night, possibly reaching 40+ mph for a time late Thursday.

—Temperatures... Definitely feeling raw. Stuck in the 40s all day Thursday. Then Friday ranges from mid 30s to lower 40s, at best.

—Snow... Part (if not most) of New Jersey will see the first flakes of the season. The higher-elevation coldest-corner of the state, north of I-80 and west of I-287, could even see a couple inches of accumulation from Thursday night to Friday. (Some models are pushing much higher totals, but I do not buy the colder solution.) The entire interior of New Jersey could experience some light wet snow on Friday before this thing wraps up.

The real bottom line: Two days of inclement, raw, occasionally nasty weather. And remember: This is a very good thing.

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Wednesday

After some spotty rain showers overnight, it was so nice to wake up to a damp ground Wednesday morning. The air smells clean and fresh. And we have plenty more raindrops on the way later on.

Aside from an early leftover spritz or sprinkle, the daytime hours on Wednesday will be dry. And temperatures will be on the mild side, starting near 50 degrees and topping out around 60 in the afternoon. Under mostly cloudy skies, it will be overall very similar to Tuesday.

As our big storm system comes into view, initial raindrops are forecast to arrive in southwestern New Jersey between about 10 p.m. and Midnight. Wet weather should spread statewide through about 2 a.m.

Everyone in the state is likely to get wet through early Thursday morning. Rain will be steady to heavy at times. There could be some rumbles of thunder overnight. And the wind will kick up too. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s or so.

Thursday

Thursday starts with rain, which will likely make for a soggy morning commute. Umbrellas up, windshield wipers on.

By mid-morning, around 8 or 9 o'clock, rain will largely taper off across New Jersey. It is going to stay rather cloudy, with limited breaks of sun to the southwest. And it will be a windy and cold day, with temperatures stuck in the 40s for the duration.

In addition, persistent showers are likely to remain to the north and east all day Thursday. Again, it will be inclement and raw and not very nice.

Once sunset arrives late Thursday afternoon, temperatures in North Jersey could be cold enough for rain to mix with or change over to snow through Thursday night. Again, any such wintry mix showers will be limited to the northern edge of the state at this point.

Friday

Friday remains the big wildcard in this forecast. Will the storm system have enough oomph for one last push of showers? (I think yes.) Will temperatures be cold enough to drive snow across most of New Jersey in this grand finale round? (I also think yes.) And will the ground be cold enough for some snow accumulation among the hilltops of NW NJ. (Also yes.)

Friday will not be quite as dismal and gray as Thursday, as peeks of sun are possible. But it will be pretty windy and pretty cold — high temperatures will only reach the lower 40s or so.

A shower is possible at any time to the north and east. And then it looks like one more resurgence of light snow and rain will sweep from west to east across New Jersey in the afternoon/evening hours. (Timing is still a bit uncertain.)

Even if snowflakes drift into central and inland southern New Jersey, accumulation and travel impacts are not expected. Only in northwestern NJ will slippery spots potentially become a problem.

Saturday

Final raindrops and snowflakes should wrap up in New Jersey by daybreak Saturday. And then the weekend will feature clearing skies and slowly warming temperatures.

Saturday will be partly sunny and still breezy. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s — still pretty chilly, and firmly below normal for late November.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday will reach the lower 50s. Almost partly sunny and breezy.

Next week's outlook remains hazy, with this week's storm system blocking our view. (Remember, I like to play things out one storm system at a time.) The GFS model likes an extended period of rain between Tuesday and Thanksgiving. But the European model keeps NJ completely dry in that time frame. That tells me that no man nor machine can tell exactly how things are going to play out just yet. So it will take another couple days to get a handle on the holiday travel forecast.

I can tell you that things look to trend cold beyond Thanksgiving. Below normal temperatures would mean high temperatures could get stuck in the 40s and even the 30s into early December. A bit of a shock to the system after such a mild fall. But 'tis the season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.