What’s this, both rain and snow coming to NJ this week?!

The Bottom Line

With 100% of New Jersey now in "Severe Drought" and 28% of the state now in the "Extreme Drought" category, it goes without saying that we really need rain. Our weather pattern has been so dormant and so dry since August. And that has already caused dramatic impacts on reservoir levels, crop health, fire danger, air quality, and more.

There are two and only two ways to dig out of this rainfall deficit:
1.) A massive tropical downpour, producing widespread 6+ inches of rain in one fell sweep (and therefore widespread flooding).
2.) A change to a more active weather pattern, leading to more frequent (but brief) periods of steady rain.

#2 is the more likely scenario — and I really like what I see in the medium to long range forecast, with numerous rain chances lined up to dampen New Jersey.

The first opportunity for wet weather will come on Thursday, associated with a strong cold front. I would not call it a "soaker," with a half-inch to an inch of total rainfall in the forecast. Healthy rain. Accompanied by wind and a cooldown. And possibly NJ's first snowflakes of the season too.

Let's dig into what looks like an active, turbulent week of weather.

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Monday

We had a batch of light rain showers — sprinkles — pass over New Jersey early Monday morning. Most of those raindrops likely evaporated before even reaching the ground.

The rest of Monday looks dry, quiet, and mild. Temperatures are starting mainly in the 40s, so grab a jacket. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 60s — much closer to record highs than normal highs, so definitely still on the warm side.

In terms of sky cover, we should see a good deal of sunshine throughout Monday, bookended by scattered clouds.

It will be breezy, with top gusts around 20 mph. That automatically raises the danger of wildfire development and spread — however, it looks like the wind and dry weather parameters come up just shy of red flag warning criteria.

Monday night will be quiet and chilly, with a few clouds overhead. Low temperatures will dip to around 40 degrees.

Tuesday

Tuesday will end up a bit cooler than Monday, with highs in the upper 50s or so. Overall, it will be a nice day, with mostly to partly sunny skies, dry conditions, and only a light breeze.

As a warm front bubbles up from the south Tuesday evening, spotty showers may develop. Best chance for some raindrops will be southern New Jersey. Far from healthy or heavy rain, but it will be a start in finding some moisture in the lowest slice of the atmosphere.

Wednesday

The daytime hours on Wednesday will be a continuation of pleasant, mild weather conditions. Let's call it partly sunny, with high temperatures back in the lower 60s.

As a strong cold front approaches late Wednesday night, rain may push into western New Jersey before Midnight. Just rain — nothing severe.

Thursday

Thursday is going to be an especially active weather day. Pretty unpleasant and inclement. But please remember, we really need rain.

A band of steady rain will traverse the state early Thursday morning, between about Midnight and 8 a.m. In any given location, it will probably rain for a couple hours. Possibly dampening your AM commute. But puddles and slick roads will be the only impacts from this storm system so far.

Forecast models do show some track and timing differences that will affect whether clouds and showers linger into the afternoon. But all scenarios paint a half-inch to an inch of healthy rainfall over New Jersey.

Behind the rain, Thursday will turn windy. I could see northwesterly gusts over 30 mph, making for quite a blustery day. Temperatures will drop from the 50s to the 40s through Thursday afternoon.

If temperatures drop fast enough and showers do wrap-around the backside of the low pressure center, there is a chance for some wintry mix or straight snow showers late Thursday. As you might guess, the best chance for some flakes would be in the colder northwest corner of the state.

No significant accumulation or travel impacts are expected. It is only significant because it could be NJ's first snowflakes of the season. (And only the first of two opportunities for flakes this week.)

Friday & Beyond

Exactly how Friday and the weekend shapes up will depend on how Thursday's storm system plays out. But one thing is for sure: It's going to get colder.

High temperatures on Friday will only reach the lower to mid 40s. That's a typical wintertime chill. Plus, a stiff westerly breeze will add a bite to the cold air.

There is a solution where Thursday's storm system lingers over New England, spitting one more piece of energy toward New Jersey on Friday. This would raise another opportunity for some snowflakes, Friday night into Saturday morning. If such a solution played out, I could see a dusting or coating on the ground in spots. But this is a highly uncertain, volatile forecast.

Regardless of Friday's wintry weather potential, the wintry chill and biting wind will carry through the weekend. We might be back in the 50s by early next week.

Next week should feature one or two more chances for rain. It might dampen our mood and cause some travel headaches heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. But again — we really need the rain.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.