NJ weather this week: Finally warming up, only one stormy day

The Bottom Line

Finally, we have finally turned the corner, and sustained warmth enters the forecast. There is a lot to love here. Especially with the Summer Solstice exactly one month away.

Temperatures across most of New Jersey will warm from the 70s into the 80s through the first part of the week. The coast will be significantly cooler, as usual, with a general on-shore breeze on Monday and then a sea breeze firing up for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The workweek only has one chance of rain plugged in, and that is on Thursday. With the growing heat and humidity, strong thunderstorms are a possibility.

The Memorial Day Weekend forecast is another "mixed bag" situation — just like practically every weekend here in New Jersey since March. We are still a day or two away from piecing together a detailed outlook, but we can talk about how things stand now and potential trouble spots.

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Monday

Monday's only weather nuisance is wind direction. The placement of a dome of high pressure (rotating clockwise) over New England will put southeasterly winds over New Jersey. That is, of course, an on-shore breeze. Ocean temperatures right now are between 58 and 63 degrees — still cool enough to have a dramatic impact on air temperatures near the ocean and bays.

Monday morning is beautiful — mainly clear, crisp, and comfortably cool with temperatures in the 50s.

Inland high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 70s Monday afternoon. But near the coast — specifically along and east of the Garden State Parkway — thermometers will only reach the 60s, at best. Barrier islands, surrounded by water, will probably be the coolest spot in the state.

Our weather should stay dry all day Monday, amid good sunshine and passing clouds.

Monday night stays quiet. A few clouds and/or some patchy fog are possible. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 50s. (FYI, I do not see temperatures dipping below 50 degrees for the foreseeable future, so you can probably hang up the jacket for a while.)

Tuesday

Even warmer. Mostly sunny skies, dry weather, a hint of humidity, and high temperatures near 80 will make it feel like a June day.

As a sea breeze circulation sets up, temps along the Jersey Shore will plateau through the afternoon. Hopefully in the 70s.

Wednesday

Likely the warmest day of the week. A real taste of typical summertime weather.

High temperatures will max out in the lower to mid 80s. (Again, away from the immediate coast.) I would not be surprised to see somewhere in NJ reach 90 degrees on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, dew points will creep upward into the 60s. That is enough water vapor in the air to call it "sticky". Not quite "steamy" or "tropical" air, as we will surely see later this summer. But notable, and sweat-worthy.

Skies will average partly sunny across Wednesday. I expect the day to stay dry, although a couple models have hinted at a popup shower.

Thursday

Thursday will be a more unsettled day, our one and only substantial chance of rain during the workweek.

A cold front will drive in a broken line of thunderstorms around midday on Thursday, affecting New Jersey through the afternoon. Will everyone in the state get rain at some point? Probably, although not necessarily guaranteed.

Thursday's high temperatures will still be in the 80s, despite mostly cloudy skies and the eventual rain. I am concerned that the rising humidity and heat in the atmosphere will fuel strong thunderstorms. That would raise the possibility of downpours and gusty winds in particular.

Friday & Beyond

Behind the front, New Jersey will enter slightly cooler, less humid air on Friday. High temperatures scale back to around 80 degrees — still unseasonably warm for late May. I'm a bit unsure how quickly skies will clear to sunshine. But for now, I have little hesitation in calling Friday a beautiful day.

The Memorial Day Weekend is tricky. I just do not have a solid view of how things are going to play out at this time. But I think it is fair to call it another "mixed bag" forecast.

Let me make a few general statements that give you an idea of how the holiday weekend forecast is trending:
1.) It will not be as warm as the rest of the week. Best case scenario is probably 70s, which is still seasonable and quite pleasant.
2.) It will not be sunny. Clouds win the sky for the duration.
3.) There will be one or two waves of rain, especially Sunday into Monday. So there could be one or two periods of lousy weather, putting beach time and outdoor Memorial Day ceremonies in jeopardy. But the timing, duration, and intensity are completely up in the air.

Within the next couple of days, I promise we will have a much clearer, more confident, and more detailed view of the big Memorial Day Weekend outlook. Stay tuned!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.