The Bottom Line

Tuesday was such a gorgeous Spring day. New Jersey's warmest of the year so far, in fact. A few spots even hit 80 degrees. Nice and warm, for sure.

Wednesday? Not as warm, due to thicker clouds and a light on-shore breeze. There will be a chance for some hit-or-miss showers around too. But I am really leaning toward a mainly dry go. An "OK" day overall, and definitely still on the mild side.

Thursday will feel more unsettled, with lots of clouds and a few showers early on. The biggest push of upcoming rain and thunderstorms will come late Thursday into early Friday. And those storms could get noisy with downpours, gusty winds, and lots of lightning in play.

Even though the weekend briefly turns cooler and we have more showers to talk about, there is a lot to like about this forecast right through next week.

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Wednesday

Wednesday morning is starting right around the 50-degree mark. That is right on the edge of whether or not you need a jacket for the first few hours of the day. (For the record, I opted to grab mine, especially given the chance of rain.)

An easterly, on-shore breeze will make for a tricky temperature forecast Monday. I think northern and eastern (coastal) New Jersey will end up close to 60 degrees. Meanwhile, inland areas, especially to the southwest, will aim for 70s once again. For the record, all those numbers are still on the mild side, above normal for this time of year.

Now let's talk about April showers. Overall, I think Wednesday's rain chances have gone down. We are only looking at a couple of isolated popup showers as the day goes on — most of the state should stay dry. I would not rule out an isolated thunderstorm, especially around the dinnertime hours. I am also wondering if extra clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle plague the coast throughout the day.

Wednesday night will bring most of the same. Possibly some fog and patchy drizzle. Low temperatures will only drop into the 50s — really not that chilly.

Thursday

Even more unsettled.

Forecast models suggest spotty showers are possible Thursday morning. But you should escape the bulk of the daytime hours dry and unscathed.

It does look pretty cloudy though. High temperatures should even out in the 60s across the state. Again, on the mild side.

A round of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms looks likely starting Thursday late afternoon, stretching into Thursday night. And there could be some strong storm cells embedded in that rain activity. Heavy downpours could put a quick inch in rain gauges across the state. Lightning could interrupt sleep and drive power outages. Marginally gusty winds are a possibility too.

Again, the prime time frame for strong storms would be about 4 p.m. Thursday through 8 a.m. Friday.

Friday

The day starts wet, but we should see some improvements later on.

Some guidance does keep lingering showers over New Jersey into part of Friday afternoon. But I favor a more optimistic outlook that gives us breaks of blue sky instead.

Friday will turn pretty windy, with sustained winds possibly topping 20 mph and gusts over 30 mph.

But high temperatures should still end up in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday

Hands down, Saturday will be the coolest day of the week. Morning 40s. Afternoon 50s. (Maybe 60 degrees in South Jersey.)

It will still be breezy too.

But you know what? We should dry out for a day with mostly sunny skies. There is a lot to like about Saturday's forecast, despite the return to "jacket weather".

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday warms right back up to 70 degrees. But there will be clouds and a chance of showers, especially late-day. So not a perfect end to the weekend.

Forecast models are all over the place for next week, 50s vs. 60s vs. 70s. I prefer a middle-ground "Goldilocks" forecast for now. (Not too hot, not too cold. Get it?) With bright skies and drier weather.

In fact, I see no major storm systems on the horizon, just occasional bursts of rain. A.K.A. classic April showers.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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